Watch the Game Highlights for Giants vs Padres – Tuesday, April 29, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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San Diego Padres

On April 29, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park in a highly anticipated National League West matchup. Both teams are having impressive seasons, with the Giants holding a record of 19-10 and the Padres at 17-11. This game marks the first in a pivotal series that could impact their standings in a closely contested division.

In their previous matchup, the Padres showcased their strong pitching with Nick Pivetta, who has started off the season remarkably with a 4-1 record and an outstanding ERA of 1.20. However, projections suggest that he may face challenges today, as he’s expected to allow an average of 4.1 hits and 1.7 walks, which could put pressure on the Padres’ defense. Pivetta’s rankings indicate he is the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB, a solid performer but not elite.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Logan Webb, who has been stellar this season, boasting a 3-1 record and a 1.98 ERA. Webb is currently ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB, and the projections indicate he has the potential to pitch deep into the game, averaging 6.8 innings while allowing only 1.9 earned runs. This could give the Giants the upper hand, especially since they have a strong bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB.

Offensively, the Padres rank 5th in team batting average but struggle with home runs, sitting 22nd. The Giants, meanwhile, are middle-of-the-pack in most offensive categories, ranking 18th overall. Despite the Giants having a slight edge in pitching, betting markets currently give the Padres a moneyline of +110, indicating a close contest that favors the home team. The low game total of 6.5 runs suggests that runs may be hard to come by, making this matchup one to watch for fans and bettors alike.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Logan Webb’s 2071.2-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 13th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme flyball bats like Wilmer Flores generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Considering that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Nick Pivetta (39% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 4 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Over the past two weeks, Gavin Sheets’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.75 Units / 42% ROI)