Watch the Game Highlights for Athletics vs Angels – Friday, July 26, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics are set to face off again on July 26, 2024, at Angel Stadium. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels sitting at 45-58 and the Athletics at 42-63. This American League West matchup features two of the division’s lower-ranking teams, making for an intriguing, albeit not high-stakes, encounter.

In yesterday’s game, the Athletics edged out the Angels with a close 6-5 victory. The Angels had a Moneyline price of -115 with a 51% implied probability, but they couldn’t hold off the Athletics, who had a Moneyline price of -105 and a 49% implied win probability.

Today’s starting pitchers won’t inspire much confidence. The Angels are sending Carson Fulmer to the mound, who has a 0-2 record and a 3.66 ERA##101. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate this season and might regress. Fulmer’s projections aren’t encouraging, with an average of 4.4 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, and 4.5 strikeouts. His opponent, Paul Blackburn, isn’t faring much better. Blackburn has a 3-2 record with a 4.11 ERA##102, but his 4.61 xERA indicates he too has been lucky. He projects to pitch 3.7 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 3.1 batters.

Offensively, the Athletics have the edge in power, ranking 4th in MLB in home runs, compared to the Angels’ 20th ranking. However, both teams struggle with batting averages, with the Athletics at 27th and the Angels at 22nd. The Angels do bring a speed element, ranking 7th in stolen bases, while the Athletics lag at 22nd.

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams are weak, with the Angels ranked 25th and the Athletics 22nd in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring game, especially given the projection of 9.5 runs as the Game Total.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Angels a slight edge with a 53% win probability, suggesting this will be a close game. Given the current odds, the Angels have a high implied team total of 4.75 runs, matching the Athletics. Both teams are projected to score over five runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair.

This game might not feature dominant pitching or playoff implications, but it offers plenty of intrigue for those looking to see if the Angels can bounce back after yesterday’s narrow loss.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Paul Blackburn allowed a monstrous 7 earned runs in his last game started.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Despite posting a .395 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brent Rooker has had some very good luck given the .047 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Oakland Athletics bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Carson Fulmer – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carson Fulmer to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Nolan Schanuel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Logan O’Hoppe pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 55 of their last 98 games (+9.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-185)
  Zack Gelof has hit the Singles Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+12.90 Units / 15% ROI)