Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)-390
The San Francisco Giants will host the Colorado Rockies for the fourth game of their series at Oracle Park on May 4, 2025. Coming off a recent victory, the Giants are enjoying a strong season with a record of 21-13, marking them as a solid contender in the National League West. In contrast, the Rockies are struggling mightily at 6-27, having the worst record in MLB, and will look to find any semblance of momentum.
Logan Webb is projected to take the mound for the Giants, and he has been stellar this season, earning a ranking as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Webb’s impressive 2.83 ERA and 3-2 record reflect his elite performance, and he projects to pitch 6.8 innings while allowing just 1.8 earned runs on average. His high strikeout rate of 29.9% could pose problems for a Rockies offense that leads MLB in strikeouts.
On the other side, German Marquez has had a challenging season, currently holding a 9.82 ERA and a 0-5 record. His struggles on the mound are evident, and he projects to give up 3.1 earned runs and 6.0 hits, which could prove detrimental against a Giants lineup that, while ranking 17th overall in offense, can capitalize on pitching vulnerabilities.
With an implied team total of 4.85 runs for the Giants and just 2.65 runs for the Rockies, the betting outlook heavily favors San Francisco. As Webb faces off against a Rockies lineup that has struggled significantly this season, conditions look ripe for the Giants to extend their winning ways.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)German Marquez’s 94.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 79th percentile among all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Ryan McMahon will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Michael Toglia pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 19.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Compared to the average hurler, Logan Webb has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 10.6 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Batters such as Wilmer Flores with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like German Marquez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+150/-195)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 37% ROI)