Uncover the Game Forecast: Dodgers vs Marlins Match Preview – 9/19/24

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers at LoanDepot Park on September 19, the contrast between the two teams’ seasons is striking. The Marlins, with a dismal 56-96 record, are winding down a challenging campaign, while the Dodgers are riding high at 90-62, eyeing postseason success as one of MLB’s elite teams. In their latest face-off on September 18, Miami fell to Los Angeles 8-4, with the Dodgers clearly demonstrating their offensive prowess.

Edward Cabrera will take the mound for the Marlins, hoping to build on his impressive last start in which he delivered six innings of scoreless baseball with nine strikeouts. Despite this, Cabrera’s season has been plagued by inconsistency, reflected in his 4-7 record and 4.55 ERA. His high-groundball tendencies could be advantageous against the Dodgers’ power-hitting lineup, which ranks 3rd in home runs this season. However, Cabrera’s control issues (11.4 BB%) could be exploited by the patient Dodgers, who are one of the league’s best at drawing walks.

Opposing him will be Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers, who boasts a stellar 12-7 record and a 3.04 ERA. Flaherty faces a Marlins offense that has struggled all season, ranking 29th overall but surprisingly 18th in team batting average. Flaherty’s ability to pound the strike zone could neutralize Miami’s impatience at the plate.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a substantial edge with a projected 65% win probability and a robust 5.90 runs on average, compared to the Marlins’ 3.99. This matchup, the third in the series, seems tilted in favor of the Dodgers, as both teams aim to close out their series with a win—and for the Dodgers, to maintain their momentum heading into the postseason.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jack Flaherty has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 10.97 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.75 — a 0.22 K/9 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-205)
  The best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Among all SPs, Edward Cabrera’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph is in the 94th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.7) implies that Kyle Stowers has had bad variance on his side this year with his 9.6 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 61 games at home (+26.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games (+17.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-185)
  Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 26 games (+11.90 Units / 46% ROI)