Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Orioles vs Tigers – Sunday, September 15, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations in the standings. The Tigers, at 76-73, are having an average season and are not contending for a playoff spot, while the Orioles stand at 84-65, enjoying a solid campaign.

In their last game, the Orioles dominated the Tigers, showcasing their offensive prowess, which ranks as the 5th best in MLB this season. Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense struggles, sitting at 25th overall. This disparity could be pivotal, especially with the projected starting pitchers. Keider Montero, who has struggled with a 4.88 ERA and ranks as the 275th best starter in MLB, will take the mound for the Tigers. He projects to pitch 4.7 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed today. In contrast, Cade Povich, who has also had a tough season with a 5.91 ERA, will start for Baltimore. His projections show slight improvement, with 4.7 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed.

The Tigers’ best hitter over the past week, Parker Meadows, is attempting to spark the offense, but with a team batting average ranked 24th, it’s a tough road ahead. On the other hand, Gunnar Henderson from the Orioles has been performing well, contributing to their strong offensive rankings, including 2nd in home runs.

Despite the Orioles’ advantage in offensive firepower, the projections suggest that this could be a close matchup, with both teams averaging an implied total of 4.25 runs. Given the current odds and the context of their seasons, the Tigers may find themselves needing an exceptional performance from Montero to keep pace with a potent Baltimore lineup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Cade Povich has recorded a .320 BABIP this year, indicating that he has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in baseball on balls in play with better performance likely coming.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Emmanuel Rivera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Emmanuel Rivera has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.2-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ryan O’Hearn has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Keider Montero has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Spencer Torkelson has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .221 mark is quite a bit higher than his .178 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Detroit Tigers have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Dillon Dingler, Parker Meadows, Trey Sweeney).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 56 games (+12.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-150)
  Heston Kjerstad has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.20 Units / 24% ROI)