Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-110
On April 6, 2025, the Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros in the third game of their series at Target Field. Both teams enter this matchup struggling, each holding a 3-5 record early in the season. This game has added importance as both teams look to break free from their slow starts. In their previous contest, the Twins secured a decisive 6-1 victory against the Astros, putting pressure on Houston to respond in a meaningful way.
The Twins will send Chris Paddack to the mound, who has had a rough start to the year with an ERA that sits at a staggering 24.30 after just one start. Although the advanced stats suggest he may be due for better fortune, Paddack was recently blasted for 9 earned runs in just 3 innings of work. On the other hand, Ronel Blanco takes the hill for the Astros, bringing a more manageable ERA of 5.40, though he also seeks redemption after losing his last outing. Blanco’s projections indicate he could face challenges against a Twins lineup that has been prone to putting the ball in play, but he will also benefit from pitching against a team that ranks among the lowest in walks drawn.
Offensively, both teams rank poorly in various categories, with the Twins positioned 59th in team batting average and the Astros slightly better at 49th. This matchup presents a rare opportunity for Minnesota to exploit Houston’s inconsistency and build on the momentum from their recent win. According to projections, both teams are expected to pull off an average of around 4.25 runs. The betting markets currently show a moneyline set at -110 for both teams, indicating a closely contested game. With the struggles both starters have faced, there could be opportunities for hitters on either side to shine.
Houston Astros Insights
- Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Given that groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Ronel Blanco (36.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Yordan Alvarez will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Houston Astros hitters collectively grade out 26th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when using their 91.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Chris Paddack has been unlucky in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 5.69 figure is quite a bit higher than his 4.70 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Typically, hitters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ronel Blanco.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Harrison Bader hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 97 games (+15.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 69 away games (+17.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)