Twins vs Rangers Game Time – 9/25/2025

Minnesota Twins

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 25, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Rangers hold an 80-78 record, putting them in a position to make a last push, while the Twins languish at 68-90, unable to find momentum this season. In their last encounter, the Rangers secured a 4-2 victory, marking a solid performance against the struggling Twins.

Texas is projected to start Tyler Mahle, who has been a bright spot for the Rangers this season. With a 6-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.20, Mahle ranks as the 102nd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.38 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression. In contrast, Bailey Ober will take the mound for Minnesota. The right-hander has had a rough year with a 5.32 ERA and a 5-9 record, and his recent outing saw him allowing 6 earned runs over 5 innings.

The Rangers’ offense has been underwhelming, ranking 26th in MLB, yet they excel in stolen bases, sitting 9th in that category. Meanwhile, the Twins rank 17th overall offensively, though they have a decent showing in home runs, placing 12th. Given the projections, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -145, indicating an implied team total of 4.31 runs.

With Mahle’s strong pitching and the Rangers’ current form, they appear set to capitalize on the Twins’ struggles. This game presents a vital opportunity for Texas to solidify their position as they vie for a spot in the postseason.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Bailey Ober’s slider utilization has risen by 16.3% from last year to this one (11.9% to 28.2%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Kody Clemens is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Tyler Mahle’s fastball velocity of 91.4 mph ranks in the 24th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Michael Helman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Michael Helman has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.3-mph dropping to 77.3-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 away games (+16.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Austin Martin – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+185/-245)
  Austin Martin has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)