New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)+200
As the 2024 season approaches its final stretch, the Detroit Tigers (59-64) face a challenging matchup against the New York Yankees (73-50) on August 17, 2024. The Yankees are firmly in playoff contention, boasting the 1st best offense in MLB, while the Tigers are struggling, ranking as the 26th best offense. This disparity is evident as the teams meet for the second game in their series, with the Yankees having shut out the Tigers 3-0 in their previous encounter on August 16.
Detroit’s Keider Montero is projected to take the mound, and he has had a rough season, holding a 3-5 record with a troubling 5.76 ERA. In his last start, Montero allowed four earned runs over five innings, which underscores his inconsistency. The projections suggest he will struggle again, expected to pitch only 4.4 innings while allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs and striking out just 3.6 batters.
Conversely, New York will counter with Carlos Rodon, who has been a reliable presence in their rotation with a 13-7 record and a 4.18 ERA. Rodon’s recent performance has been impressive, as he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs in his last outing. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings today, allowing only 2.5 earned runs on average, making him a significant advantage for the Yankees.
With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, Detroit’s low implied team total of 3.66 runs reflects the uphill battle they face against a superior Yankees squad. According to the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are projected to score 6.16 runs, highlighting the challenge ahead for the Tigers’ struggling offense.
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Carlos Rodon’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.1% compared to 39.6% last year) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Juan Soto has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.8-mph to 97.6-mph in the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-235)The best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the New York Yankees.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+200)Out of all the teams in action today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Extreme groundball batters like Javier Baez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Detroit’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in MLB: #23 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (+125)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 56 games (+10.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 73 games (+20.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+205/-280)Parker Meadows has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+11.25 Units / 87% ROI)