TV Channel Information for Reds vs Guardians – Monday June 9, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on June 9, 2025, at Progressive Field, both teams are looking to improve their standings in a tightly contested season. The Guardians currently sit at 34-30, enjoying an above-average season, while the Reds are at an even 33-33, reflecting an average performance thus far. This matchup marks the beginning of a series between the two teams, with the Guardians entering as significant betting favorites.

In their last outing, the Guardians showcased their pitching prowess, with Luis Ortiz taking the mound. Ortiz has had a mixed season, holding a record of 3-6 and an ERA of 4.02, which suggests he has been somewhat lucky this year. However, his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.71 indicates that he might see a decline in performance. Ortiz is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 5.8 batters, which aligns with his average capabilities.

On the other hand, Wade Miley of the Reds has struggled significantly this season. With an ERA of 18.00 and having only appeared in one game out of the bullpen, his projections suggest a tough outing ahead, as he is expected to pitch just 4.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. His low strikeout rate and high hit allowance further compound his challenges.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 24th in MLB, reflecting their struggles at the plate, while the Reds are slightly better at 12th. However, the Guardians are projected to score 4.75 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on Miley’s vulnerabilities. With an average game total of 8.5 runs, this matchup could see the Guardians’ offense break out, especially with their best hitter performing well recently, boasting a .391 batting average over the last week.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Wade Miley – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Wade Miley has averaged 50.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 0th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Matt McLain hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis L. Ortiz has used his off-speed and breaking balls 7.4% more often this season (53.5%) than he did last season (46.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Will Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Will Wilson’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 86.9-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 78.1-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Daniel Schneemann, Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones, Will Wilson, Bo Naylor).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-170)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 games (+6.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.25 Units / 24% ROI)