TV Channel Information for Mets vs Reds – Saturday September 6, 2025

New York Mets

@

Cincinnati Reds

On September 6, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the New York Mets at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. The Mets recently edged the Reds in a nail-biter, winning the first game 5-4, and both teams are looking to capitalize on their current forms. The Mets are enjoying an above-average season with a record of 76-65, while the Reds sit at 70-71, reflecting an average year.

Brady Singer is projected to start for the Reds, and while he ranks as the 107th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has shown inconsistency, with a Win/Loss record of 12-9 and an ERA of 4.08. In his last outing, he pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs and striking out 8 batters, indicating potential but also volatility. The projections suggest he may struggle today, averaging 3.1 earned runs, 4.6 strikeouts, and 5.2 hits allowed over 5.0 innings.

On the other hand, Jonah Tong will take the mound for the Mets. He has made a strong impression in his limited time, holding the 39th spot in the rankings and boasting an exceptional ERA of 1.80. Despite having only one start this season, his latest performance saw him allow just 1 earned run over 5 innings, while striking out 6 batters. This indicates that he might outperform his projections, which suggest he’ll give up 2.4 earned runs and 4.8 hits in 5.2 innings.

Offensively, the Mets rank 4th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup that includes a hitter with 37 home runs and a 0.924 OPS. In contrast, the Reds’ offense ranks 16th, struggling particularly with power as they sit 24th in home runs. Given the current trends and the teams’ respective pitching matchups, the Mets appear poised to continue their winning ways.

New York Mets Insights

• Jonah Tong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Jonah Tong has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of matching up with 6 same-handed batters in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Over the past week, Jeff McNeil’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Among all starters, Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate of 2438 rpm ranks in the 84th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Austin Hays has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 89.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 109 games (+22.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 53 of their last 89 games (+12.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+180/-240)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)