Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)+165
As the Washington Nationals prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 9, 2025, they find themselves in a tough spot in the standings. With a record of 5-6, the Nationals are struggling to find their rhythm this season, while the Dodgers sit comfortably at 9-4, showcasing a strong start. The Nationals recently turned things around with an impressive 8-2 victory over the Dodgers in their last matchup, which marked a significant morale boost for the team.
In this game, the Nationals will send Jake Irvin to the mound, who has had a rocky start to the season with a 5.40 ERA and ranks as the 220th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Irvin projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs, which suggests he may struggle against a potent Dodgers lineup that is currently ranked 1st in home runs. However, Irvin’s low strikeout rate could play to his advantage against the Dodgers’ high-strikeout offense.
On the other side, Landon Knack will be making his first start of the season for the Dodgers. Knack has shown promise in limited appearances, boasting a stellar 0.00 ERA. However, he projects for only 4.8 innings on average, which could put pressure on a Dodgers bullpen that ranks 3rd best in MLB.
The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for an offensive showcase. The Nationals’ offense ranks 12th overall, with notable power, while the Dodgers rank 9th but have shown inconsistency in batting average, sitting at 18th. With the Nationals as underdogs at +165, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially considering the recent momentum shift after their last win.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Among all starters, Landon Knack’s fastball spin rate of 2448.4 rpm ranks in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Shohei Ohtani has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last year’s 95.6-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Because flyball hitters hold a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Jake Irvin and his 42.8% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this game matching up with 0 opposing GB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Extreme groundball batters like Josh Bell usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Landon Knack.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Washington Nationals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (+100)The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 67 games at home (+5.20 Units / 6% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 113 games (+27.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1800)Enrique Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+25.00 Units / 278% ROI)