Track the Live Score for Padres vs Yankees – 5/07/2025

San Diego Padres

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees welcome the San Diego Padres to Yankee Stadium on May 7, 2025, for the third game of this interleague series. The Yankees currently sit with a record of 20-16, while the Padres boast a strong 23-12 mark. Both teams have shown promise this season, but the Yankees are looking to build momentum after a recent series win against the Padres, where they showcased their elite offense.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Max Fried, who has an impressive 6-0 record and a stellar 1.01 ERA this year, ranking him as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB. Fried has been a dominant force, although his 3.74 xFIP suggests he may have had some good fortune thus far. He projects to pitch around 6.5 innings today, allowing just 2.0 earned runs on average, making him a tough challenge for any lineup.

Dylan Cease counters for the Padres, bringing a 1-2 record and a troubling 5.61 ERA into this matchup. While Cease ranks as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his performance has been inconsistent, and his 4.04 xFIP indicates he could improve. He projects to pitch about 5.4 innings today but is likely to face a Yankees offense that ranks 1st in MLB in runs and home runs.

The Yankees are favored, with a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, reflecting their potent lineup. The projections suggest that the Yankees’ patience at the plate could exploit Cease’s struggles with walks, potentially leading to a big offensive day. With the Yankees’ powerful bats and Fried’s elite pitching, they appear well-positioned to secure a victory in this exciting matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dylan Cease’s 95.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1-mph drop off from last season’s 96.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Typically, batters like Jose Iglesias who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (52% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Austin Wells has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+150)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 59% ROI)