Track the Live Score for Nationals vs Reds – 5/04/2025

Washington Nationals

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Washington Nationals on May 4, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in an important National League matchup. The Reds enter this game with an 18-16 record, reflecting an above-average season thus far, while the Nationals struggle at 15-19, indicating a disappointing start. In their previous game, the Reds took down the Nationals 7-4, giving them an edge in this series.

Projected starters Nick Martinez and MacKenzie Gore present an intriguing contrast. Martinez, currently ranked as the 96th best starting pitcher in MLB, has struggled with a 1-3 record and a 4.68 ERA, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky this season. His 4.07 FIP suggests he might improve moving forward, but he has been prone to allowing hits and walks. In contrast, Gore, who boasts a solid 3.51 ERA and ranks 53rd among MLB starters, has shown promise with a 2.37 xFIP, indicating potential for better performance. With both pitchers expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, the Reds’ offense, ranking 10th in MLB, may have the upper hand.

Notably, the Reds’ best hitter has been on a tear lately, recording 9 hits and 5 RBIs over the last week, showcasing a 0.529 batting average. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ best hitter has also performed well but with fewer appearances, recording 5 hits and 5 RBIs in just 4 games.

With the Reds’ bullpen ranked 16th and the Nationals’ at 25th, the advantage leans towards Cincinnati. The current moneyline favors the Reds at -120, reflecting their solid offensive capabilities against a struggling Nationals team. The Game Total sits at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup. As the season progresses, this game could be pivotal for both teams’ trajectories.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  MacKenzie Gore is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Amed Rosario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Amed Rosario usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Martinez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Washington Nationals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Nick Martinez has gone to his slider 7.3% more often this year (12.5%) than he did last season (5.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cincinnati Reds bats jointly have been one of the worst in MLB this year ( 4th-worst) as far as their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.20 Units / 53% ROI)