Washington Nationals
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-205
On June 12, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals at Citi Field for the third game of their series. The Mets are riding high after a dominant 5-0 victory over the Nationals yesterday, showcasing their strong form this season with a record of 44-24. Conversely, the Nationals are struggling at 30-37 and are looking to turn things around.
Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets, and he has been a standout pitcher this year, currently ranking 57th among approximately 350 pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 1.59 ERA is impressive, indicating he has been effective, although his 4.09 xFIP suggests he might have benefited from some good fortune. Senga’s ability to strike out 6.2 batters on average while allowing only 2.4 earned runs positions him well against a Nationals offense that ranks 18th overall in MLB.
On the other hand, Mike Soroka will start for Washington. While Soroka’s 4.86 ERA may seem underwhelming, his 3.50 xFIP indicates he might perform better than his current numbers suggest. He has shown good control with a low walk rate, which could challenge the Mets’ patient lineup that ranks 4th in walks this season.
The Mets’ offense has been particularly potent, ranking 5th among MLB teams, and they have an implied team total of 5.01 runs for this matchup. With their best hitter recently showcasing a hot streak—hitting .417 over the past week—the Mets are positioned as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -215. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with an implied total of 3.49 runs, will need a strong performance from Soroka to keep them competitive.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Mike Soroka – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Given that groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Mike Soroka (44.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has used his secondary offerings a lot this year: 63.8% of the time, placing in the 92nd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Pete Alonso has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-205)The New York Mets projected offense grades out as the 2nd-best on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (-110)The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games (+12.39 Units / 14% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.34 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)