Washington Nationals
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)-230
As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Washington Nationals on July 8, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back after disappointing performances in their last games. The Cardinals were shut out 11-0 against the Cincinnati Reds, while the Nationals fell to the Atlanta Braves by a score of 6-4.
Currently, the Cardinals hold a record of 48-43, indicating an above-average season, while the Nationals sit at 37-53, struggling significantly. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and the stakes are high for the Cardinals, who are aiming to regain momentum.
Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for St. Louis. Ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Gray has been a consistent performer, boasting an 8-3 record and a respectable ERA of 3.51. His projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.8 innings, allowing about 2.0 earned runs, which should give the Cardinals a strong chance to secure a win. However, Gray faces a Nationals offense that has the 4th least strikeouts in the league, potentially challenging his ability to capitalize on strikeouts.
On the other side, Jake Irvin will start for Washington. While Irvin has an average ERA of 4.71, his projections indicate that he may struggle today, with an expected 3.1 earned runs allowed. With the Cardinals offense ranked 14th in MLB, they have the tools to exploit Irvin’s weaknesses.
Betting lines favor the Cardinals significantly, with a moneyline of -210, implying a strong likelihood of victory. With their solid home record and a capable pitcher on the mound, the Cardinals appear poised to take control of this matchup and start the series off on a positive note.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Jake Irvin’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (48.3% compared to 41.7% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Sonny Gray.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Sonny Gray’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Nolan Gorman has a ton of pop (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (31.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin has a pitch-to-contact profile (7th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- The St. Louis Cardinals have done a weak job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 11.7° mark is among the lowest in Major League Baseball this year (#27 overall).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+8.47 Units / 27% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-110)The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)