Track the Live Score for Marlins vs White Sox – 5/11/2025

Miami Marlins

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Chicago White Sox

On May 11, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Miami Marlins at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game of their series. The White Sox are struggling this season with a record of 11-29, while the Marlins sit at 15-23. Despite their records, both teams showcase some challenges, particularly in their pitching matchups.

Chicago is set to start Sean Burke, who has had a tumultuous season. Although he holds a respectable ERA of 4.35, his peripherals tell a different story, as his xFIP of 5.41 suggests he’s been riding his luck and could struggle against a decent lineup. Burke’s 2-4 record indicates inconsistency, and he projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over an average of 5.5 innings in this matchup.

On the other hand, Sandy Alcantara, projected to start for Miami, has struggled this season with an alarming ERA of 8.42. Despite this high ERA, his xFIP of 4.68 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, and the projections suggest he could improve. Alcantara typically pitches well, averaging 6.6 innings per start and allowing just 2.3 earned runs.

The White Sox offense ranks as the 30th best in MLB, with little power to speak of, which pairs poorly against Alcantara’s groundball tendencies. Conversely, the Marlins’ offense finds itself at a more respectable 18th ranking, giving them the edge.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, oddsmakers see this as a tightly contested matchup. The White Sox’s moneyline of +115 implies an implied win probability of 45%, while Miami is favored at -135 with a 55% implied win probability. Given the context, Miami may have the upper hand, especially if Alcantara can harness his potential against a struggling White Sox lineup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Given the 4.48 deviation between Sandy Alcantara’s 8.42 ERA and his 3.94 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year and figures to see better results in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Kyle Stowers has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph dropping to 77.2-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Sean Burke’s 2536-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 97th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Typically, hitters like Joshua Palacios who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Sandy Alcantara.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 48% ROI)