Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
(-115/-105)-170
As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Angels on July 5, 2025, excitement surrounds the matchup, especially after the Blue Jays secured a dominant victory in yesterday’s game. With a 50-38 record, Toronto sits in a comfortable position as they aim to solidify their playoff prospects. The Angels, on the other hand, struggle with a 43-44 record, marking them as an average team in the league this season.
Toronto will send Max Scherzer to the mound, a seasoned right-handed pitcher who has had an up-and-down season with a 4.85 ERA. Despite this, his 3.86 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and is likely to improve. Scherzer’s ability to strike out batters (projected at 6.6 today) will be crucial, especially against an Angels offense that ranks as the 21st best in MLB.
Conversely, Jack Kochanowicz will take the ball for the Angels, bringing a lackluster 5.44 ERA and a 3-8 record this year. Kochanowicz’s low strikeout rate (16.2 K%) could be problematic against one of the league’s best offenses. The Blue Jays rank 8th in MLB offensively, boasting the 3rd best team batting average. However, their power numbers are middling, as evidenced by their 25th rank in home runs.
The advanced projections indicate that the Blue Jays should have the upper hand, with a high implied team total of 5.05 runs, as they face a struggling Angels bullpen ranked 29th in the league. With Scherzer on the mound and a potent lineup behind him, Toronto appears primed to continue their success against a vulnerable Angels team.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jack Kochanowicz has utilized his secondary pitches 12.1% more often this year (33.6%) than he did last year (21.5%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Toronto’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Luis Rengifo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jorge Soler hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-170)The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-265)Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Max Scherzer – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-140/+110)Max Scherzer has hit the Earned Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.40 Units / 33% ROI)