Top Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Rays – April 02, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 2, 2025, they do so with confidence after a resounding 7-0 victory over the Pirates just yesterday. The Rays currently sit at 4-1, showcasing a strong start to the season, while the Pirates struggle at 1-5, having experienced a tough beginning.

In this Interleague matchup at George M. Steinbrenner Field, Ryan Pepiot is set to take the mound for Tampa Bay. Pepiot, ranked 51st among starting pitchers in MLB, has shown promise with an impressive ERA of 1.50 this season, although his xFIP of 2.65 suggests he may not maintain this level of performance going forward. His ability to rack up strikeouts—averaging 5.9 per game—will be crucial against a Pirates offense that ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts.

On the other side, Pittsburgh will counter with Paul Skenes, the top-ranked pitcher in MLB, boasting a solid ERA of 3.38. Skenes has an elite projection for earned runs allowed, averaging just 1.7, which gives him an edge in this matchup. However, his struggle to convert strikeouts into outs against a Rays lineup that ranks 1st in the league for fewest strikeouts could play a significant role in the game’s outcome.

While both teams have low implied team totals of 3.50 runs, the Rays’ overall offensive performance, highlighted by their 7th best batting average, may provide the necessary support for Pepiot to secure a win. The projections favor the Rays in this contest, and with their recent form, they should be expected to capitalize on the Pirates’ struggles.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Considering that groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Paul Skenes (49.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Endy Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Tampa Bay’s #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Endy Rodriguez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ryan Pepiot has had some very good luck with his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 9.93 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.37 — a 0.56 K/9 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Since the start of last season, Jonathan Aranda’s 16.2% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 96th percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 8th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 85 of their last 144 games (+22.21 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 68 away games (+5.50 Units / 7% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+6.40 Units / 213% ROI)