Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Guardians vs Orioles – Thursday, April 17th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Cleveland Guardians on April 17, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions early in the season. The Orioles sit at 7-10, struggling to find consistency, while the Guardians are slightly better at 9-8, giving them an edge thus far. After a commanding 9-1 victory on April 16, the Orioles are looking to build momentum, while the Guardians will be eager to bounce back after suffering the same lopsided defeat.

The matchup features Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound for the Orioles against Tanner Bibee for the Guardians. Sugano has had a rocky start, holding a 3.86 ERA but ranking just 289th among starting pitchers, indicating he is among the worst in the league. His average projection of 5.5 innings pitched today coupled with a concerning strikeout rate of only 8.1% suggests he may struggle against a Guardians lineup that is not particularly prolific.

On the other hand, Bibee, ranked 76th among starting pitchers with a 4.40 ERA, brings a slightly more favorable profile. However, he too has a high walk rate, which the Orioles, who rank 5th in least walks drawn, may not be able to exploit.

Interestingly, the projections suggest that the Orioles’ offense, ranked 16th in the league, has potential for improvement, especially given their recent hot streak. Meanwhile, the Guardians, despite a 20th place ranking in offense, appear to be relatively stagnant.

The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations of a competitive outing. With the Orioles currently favored at -130, this game presents an opportunity for Baltimore to capitalize on their recent success and even the series against Cleveland.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Tanner Bibee is projected to strikeout 4.9 hitters today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Lane Thomas has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tomoyoki Sugano in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Ryan Mountcastle has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year’s 90.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-best of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Ramon Urias has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.15 Units / 40% ROI)