Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Brewers vs Padres – Monday, September 22nd, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres on September 22, 2025, both teams are looking to make a statement. The Brewers, currently at 95-61, are enjoying a great season and sit comfortably atop their division. Meanwhile, the Padres, with an 85-71 record, are having an above-average year but are still fighting for a Wild Card spot.

In their last outing, the Padres managed a solid win, showcasing their potential as they gear up for this matchup. They will send Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has been impressive this season with a 13-5 record and a stellar ERA of 2.81. However, Pivetta’s 3.80 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck, and he projects to allow an average of 2.4 earned runs today, which is above average for him. His high strikeout rate (26.6 K%) will be tested against a Brewers lineup that strikes out less frequently than most.

Freddy Peralta, the Brewers’ starter, has been even better, boasting a 17-6 record and a 2.65 ERA. While he also has a higher xFIP of 3.90, his ability to generate strikeouts (28.1 K%) could be crucial against a Padres offense that ranks 3rd least in strikeouts. The projections indicate that both pitchers will have to navigate through tough lineups, but the Padres’ offense, which ranks 16th overall and 29th in home runs, could struggle to capitalize on Peralta’s flyball tendencies.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs set for this matchup, betting markets view it as a close contest, reflected in the Padres’ moneyline of -130 and the Brewers’ +110. The Padres’ bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, may offer them an edge late in the game, especially if the starters keep the score tight. Overall, this series opener is poised to be a thrilling encounter as both teams aim to solidify their standing in the playoff race.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Nick Pivetta has relied on his curveball 5.5% more often this year (22%) than he did last season (16.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 151 games (+13.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 112 games (+29.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-205)
  Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.25 Units / 17% ROI)