Tickets Information for Marlins vs Braves – August 03, 2024

Miami Marlins

@

Atlanta Braves

On August 3, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Miami Marlins at Truist Park in the third game of their series. The Braves, with a record of 60-49, are enjoying a strong season, while the Marlins have struggled significantly at 40-70. Recent performances have seen the Braves maintain an average offensive output, ranking 15th in MLB, while the Marlins sit near the bottom at 29th.

In the previous matchup, the Braves took advantage of their solid hitting and high-ranked bullpen, currently 3rd best in MLB, to claim victory. This game promises to be another important chapter as the Braves look to solidify their standing in the National League East.

The Braves are projected to start Grant Holmes, who has enjoyed a strong year with an impressive ERA of 2.54. However, his 3.18 xFIP suggests he’s benefited from some good fortune and could face challenges moving forward. Holmes’s low walk rate could work against him, especially against the Marlins, who are the least patient team at the plate. Meanwhile, Kyle Tyler, projected to start for Miami, has struggled with a 4.74 ERA but is expected to improve, as indicated by his lower FIP of 4.18.

Looking ahead, projections indicate that the Braves may put up an impressive total of around 5.94 runs in this matchup, while the Marlins are expected to score about 4.64 runs. With the Braves as significant betting favorites—holding a moneyline of -235—there’s a clear expectation for them to perform well, even though the Marlins may offer some betting value due to their underdog status. Ultimately, the Braves will need to leverage their strengths against a faltering Marlins squad to continue their successful run.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Kyle Tyler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Kyle Tyler will have a tough challenge going up against 6 batters in the projected lineup who share his handedness in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Kyle Stowers is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Miami Marlins bats collectively rank 26th- in the game for power this year when using their 7.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-235)
  The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Eddie Rosario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Eddie Rosario has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 93 games (+27.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 84 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+15.95 Units / 54% ROI)