Tickets Information for D-Backs vs Twins – September 14, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 14, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this interleague series. The Twins enter the game having lost their previous matchup, 5-2, while the Diamondbacks are coming off a victory against the same opponent. With records of 65-83 and 74-75, respectively, the Twins are struggling this season, while the Diamondbacks find themselves in a more competitive position.

On the mound for the Twins will be Bailey Ober, who has had a mixed season with a 5-7 record and an unfortunate ERA of 5.08. Despite being ranked the 119th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, with a 4.57 SIERA indicating potential for improved performance. Ober’s last start saw him pitch 5 innings, allowing only 1 earned run and striking out 6 batters, raising hopes for a better outing today.

Conversely, the Diamondbacks will send Nabil Crismatt to the mound. With a 2-0 record and a strong ERA of 3.24, Crismatt has been effective but is perceived as one of the weaker pitchers in baseball, based on projections. His last start was less favorable, allowing 4 earned runs over just 4 innings.

Offensively, the disparities are stark. Minnesota ranks just 22nd in team batting average, while Arizona boasts a potent lineup, ranking 5th overall. The Twins have a higher projected team total of 4.97 runs, suggesting optimism for their offense despite recent struggles. However, facing a powerful Diamondbacks team that has hit 202 home runs this season, Ober will have to navigate a lineup adept at capitalizing on fly balls.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Nabil Crismatt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nabil Crismatt must realize this, because he has gone to his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 63% of the time, grading out in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Bats such as Blaze Alexander with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Ober who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Bailey Ober’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.9 mph this season (89.8 mph) below where it was last year (91.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Matt Wallner has big-time power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (31.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Nabil Crismatt is a pitch-to-contact type (6th percentile K%) — great news for Wallner.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 61 of their last 112 games (+16.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Austin Martin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Austin Martin has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)