Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)+170
As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on August 30, 2025, at Coors Field, both teams are coming off different trajectories in the standings. The Rockies sit at 38-97, struggling significantly this season, while the Cubs boast a solid 77-58 record. This matchup is pivotal for the Cubs as they continue their push for a playoff spot, while the Rockies are simply looking to salvage what’s left of their season.
In their previous game, the Cubs showcased their offensive prowess, taking down the Rockies with a strong performance that highlighted their status as one of the top teams in MLB. With the Cubs ranking 9th in offensive output and sitting 4th in stolen bases, their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities will be crucial against a Rockies pitching staff that ranks among the worst in the league.
On the mound, the Rockies are slated to start McCade Brown, who has had a rough start to the season, sporting a dismal 9.82 ERA and a 0-1 record in his lone start. Although his xFIP suggests he could improve, he projects to pitch only 4.2 innings and surrender 3.1 earned runs today. This is concerning against a powerful Cubs lineup that has already hit 185 home runs this season.
Conversely, the Cubs will send out Javier Assad, who has shown potential despite having one of the lower strikeout rates in MLB. He carries a solid 3.86 ERA and projects to allow 3.1 earned runs while pitching 4.8 innings. The projections indicate that, while both pitchers may struggle, the Rockies’ offense, ranked 27th overall, is unlikely to fully capitalize on Assad’s weaknesses.
Given the Cubs’ favorable matchup and recent form, they enter this game as strong favorites, expected to outscore the Rockies significantly. With a game total set at 11.0 runs, fans can anticipate an action-packed showdown.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Javier Assad has used his sinker 5.8% more often this season (41.6%) than he did last year (35.8%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-200)The 4th-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Chicago Cubs.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- McCade Brown – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)In his last GS, McCade Brown struggled when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 2 Ks.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Colorado’s 88.7-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #26 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 75 of their last 132 games (+11.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-210)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 65 of their last 129 games (+15.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+310/-450)Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 away games (+17.35 Units / 174% ROI)