Tickets Information for Cardinals vs Blue Jays – September 15, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 15, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Rogers Centre. After a decisive victory yesterday, where the Blue Jays triumphed 7-2 against the Cardinals, both teams look to gain momentum in this interleague series. The Blue Jays are currently underperforming with a record of 71-78, while the Cardinals sit at 74-74, showcasing a more average season.

On the mound, Toronto will send Chris Bassitt to the hill, who is coming off a solid performance in his last start, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings. He faces Miles Mikolas, who has struggled significantly this season with a 5.55 ERA and a troubling last outing where he was knocked around for 6 earned runs in just 2 innings. Mikolas’s low strikeout rate (16.7 K%) could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that is adept at putting the ball in play, ranking 6th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

While the Blue Jays rank 15th in overall offensive performance, their best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., has been a bright spot, boasting a .320 batting average and 28 home runs this season. In contrast, the Cardinals’ offense, ranked 18th, has been less consistent, with Paul Goldschmidt as their standout performer.

Betting markets currently favor the Blue Jays with a moneyline of -125, reflecting a close contest expected today. However, projections suggest the Blue Jays could outperform their implied total of 4.14 runs, potentially scoring an average of 4.42 runs, while the Cardinals are projected for 4.09 runs. With momentum on their side and a favorable pitching matchup, the Blue Jays aim to capitalize and secure another win.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Miles Mikolas’s curveball utilization has fallen by 8.1% from last year to this one (20% to 11.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  In terms of his home runs, Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance this year. His 23.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.8.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Over his last 3 GS, Yariel Rodriguez has experienced a substantial decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2370 rpm over the entire season to 2277 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Davis Schneider has big-time HR ability (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas doesn’t generate many whiffs (19th percentile K%) — great news for Schneider.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Toronto grades out as the #6 group of hitters in MLB when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (16.3% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+16.58 Units / 28% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 55% ROI)
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jordan Walker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 50% ROI)