Tickets Information for Blue Jays vs Orioles – July 29, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays for the second game of a double-header on July 29, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, sitting at 62-43, are enjoying a stellar season, currently second in the American League East. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, with a 49-56 record, find themselves struggling to stay competitive in the same division. This matchup is crucial for Baltimore as they push towards the postseason.

In their previous game on July 28, the Orioles secured an 8-6 victory over the San Diego Padres, while the Blue Jays triumphed over the Texas Rangers with a 7-3 win. Both teams come into this game on the back of wins, looking to build momentum.

The Orioles will send left-hander Cade Povich to the mound. Povich has had a tough season, holding a 1-4 record and a dismal 6.27 ERA. However, his 5.73 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and might improve. Despite his low strikeout rate (16.1 K%), Povich faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 4th in least strikeouts, potentially giving Toronto an edge in making contact.

The Blue Jays will counter with Bowden Francis. Francis, also struggling this season, sports a 5.82 ERA with a 4.60 xFIP indicating some bad luck as well. Facing an Orioles offense ranked 1st in home runs and 3rd overall, Francis’s high flyball rate (38%) could spell trouble.

Offensively, Baltimore has been led by Gunnar Henderson, boasting a .283 average with 28 home runs. Cedric Mullins, hitting .333 with a 1.179 OPS over the last week, has also been hot. On the Blue Jays side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to be a bright spot, hitting .301 with 19 homers this season and a scorching .474 average over the last week.

The Orioles are favored with a moneyline of -160, giving them a 59% implied win probability. With the combination of their powerful offense and the Blue Jays’ pitching woes, Baltimore looks poised to take control of this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+140)
  The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense grades out as the best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kevin Kiermaier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Utilizing Statcast metrics, Kevin Kiermaier grades out in the 1st percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .234.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 101 games (+10.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 31 games (+17.30 Units / 50% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)