New York Yankees
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+100
The Miami Marlins will host the New York Yankees in a pivotal interleague matchup on August 3, 2025. The Marlins enter this contest with a 54-55 record, placing them in a middle-of-the-pack position, while the Yankees, boasting a 60-51 mark, are positioned as strong contenders this season. After a solid performance in their previous game, where the Marlins secured a shutout victory against the Yankees with a score of 2-0, they will look to build momentum and capitalize on home field advantage at LoanDepot Park.
On the mound for the Marlins is Edward Cabrera, ranked as the 75th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, which indicates he is performing above average this season. Cabrera has had a recent strong outing, pitching six innings with just one earned run while striking out four batters. However, he does have some concerning projections for today, as he is expected to struggle with allowing 4.1 hits and 2.3 walks on average, which could create opportunities for the Yankees’ powerful lineup. Cabrera’s ability to generate ground balls (48% GB rate) could help him mitigate damage against a Yankees offense that leads MLB with 177 home runs.
Luis Gil will take the mound for New York, and while he has been deemed an average pitcher, he struggled in his last start by allowing four earned runs in just four innings. Today’s projections suggest that Gil will also face challenges, with his expected stats indicating he will give up 4.3 hits and 2.2 walks per game. Despite his struggles, the Yankees’ offense remains potent, ranked 1st overall in MLB, which could pose a significant threat to Cabrera and the Marlins’ pitching staff.
With both teams having an average implied total of 4.00 runs for this matchup, it sets the stage for what could be a tightly contested game. The projection system suggests a close battle, but given the strength of the Yankees’ offense and the Marlins’ recent performance, Miami will need to elevate its game to come out on top.
New York Yankees Insights
- Luis Gil – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Luis Gil is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least on the slate.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Ben Rice has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .344 mark is quite a bit lower than his .409 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- It may be smart to expect worse results for the New York Yankees offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Edward Cabrera has relied on his four-seam fastball 14.2% less often this season (13.2%) than he did last season (27.4%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Liam Hicks has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Miami Marlins bats collectively place 21st- in MLB for power this year when using their 8.1% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 72 games (+19.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 102 games (+6.82 Units / 6% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 42% ROI)