Stream the Tigers vs Mariners Game Live – 4/02/2025

Detroit Tigers

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners will host the Detroit Tigers on April 2, 2025, in the third game of a series featuring two struggling teams. As of now, the Mariners sit with a 2-4 record while the Tigers are slightly better at 2-3, making this matchup crucial for both squads to gain some momentum early in the season.

In their last encounter, the Tigers managed to edge out the Mariners, which has added to Seattle’s woes. The Mariners are set to start Luis Castillo, who, despite being ranked the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB, faces significant challenges this season. He has an ERA of 3.60, suggesting some potential for improvement, though his 4.20 xFIP indicates he might be due for a regression. Castillo projects to pitch 6.0 innings and allow an average of 2.2 earned runs, but he needs to improve on allowing 4.8 hits and 1.8 walks.

On the mound for the Tigers is Tarik Skubal, an elite pitcher ranked 2nd in MLB. Skubal has struggled recently, with a 7.20 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.82 suggests he could be a victim of bad luck rather than poor performance. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings and allow only 1.8 earned runs, backed by a solid strikeout rate of 7.2 batters per game.

The Mariners’ struggles extend to their offense, ranking 39th overall, with a dismal performance in home runs, sitting 27th in MLB. In contrast, the Tigers boast a stronger lineup, ranked 11th, although they too suffer from a weak power output, being 33rd in home runs. Given these factors, Skubal’s elite status against a low-performing Mariners offense provides him with a clear advantage.

With a Game Total of just 6.5 runs, oddsmakers anticipate a low-scoring affair, reflecting the current struggles of both teams. The Mariners are projected to score only 3.17 runs, while the Tigers’ total is slightly higher at 3.33 runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  As a result of his reverse platoon split, Tarik Skubal figures to be at an advantage being matched up with 8 bats in the projected offense who bat from the other side in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1200/-7000)
  Riley Greene’s quickness has dropped off this year. His 27.7 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.16 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all starting pitchers, Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity of 95.5 mph is in the 79th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Mitch Garver tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tarik Skubal.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games at home (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 42 away games (+20.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 50% ROI)