Stream the Rockies vs Red Sox Game Live – 7/08/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park on July 8, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. After a decisive 9-3 victory over the Rockies on July 7, the Red Sox are looking to build momentum. They currently hold a record of 47-45, which isn’t overwhelming, but their offensive performance ranks 5th in MLB, suggesting they have the talent to turn their season around.

Starting for the Red Sox is Brayan Bello, who is considered an average pitcher according to advanced metrics. Bello has a solid ERA of 3.42 this season, backed by a decent xFIP of 4.39. He has faced challenges with walks, boasting a 10.0 BB% that could be problematic against a Rockies lineup that is patient yet struggles overall, ranking 25th in MLB. In his last start on June 27, Bello pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs but will be looking to improve his performance this time around.

On the mound for the Rockies is Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough season with a 1-9 record and a poor ERA of 5.49. Freeland’s 4.04 xFIP indicates he might be due for some positive regression, but his last outing did not inspire confidence. He also pitched effectively, allowing 3 earned runs across 6 innings on July 3, though the Rockies’ offense continues to struggle.

The Red Sox enter this matchup as significant favorites, with the betting line reflecting an implied team total of 5.27 runs, compared to the Rockies’ low 3.23. Given the contrasting trajectories of these teams, the Red Sox’s strong offense will likely exploit Freeland’s vulnerabilities, while Bello could capitalize on the Rockies’ tendency to strike out. As such, the expectations for a Boston victory are high.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Freeland has gone to his non-fastballs 5.8% more often this year (61%) than he did last year (55.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Hunter Goodman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Brayan Bello’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (94.6 mph) below where it was last season (95.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Jarren Duran is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup today (.310 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .327 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games (+9.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+11.22 Units / 11% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under Hits
  Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)