Stream the Rockies vs Red Sox Game Live – 7/08/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Boston Red Sox

On July 8, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Red Sox are currently sitting at 47-45, struggling to find consistency this season, while the Rockies have managed a dismal 21-70 record, firmly entrenched at the bottom of the standings. Given their respective performances, it’s not surprising that Boston enters this matchup as a strong betting favorite, with a moneyline of -235.

In their last game, the Red Sox displayed an impressive offensive output, capitalizing on the Rockies’ pitching woes to secure a convincing win. Boston’s offense ranks as the 5th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, and they are currently projected to score 5.40 runs against Colorado’s weak pitching staff.

On the mound, Boston’s Brayan Bello is set to take the hill, bringing a solid 3.42 ERA into the game. While his xFIP of 4.40 suggests some regression may be on the horizon, he has been effective enough to maintain a 4-3 record over 13 starts. Bello’s low strikeout rate of 16.7% could be a concern, but facing a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in strikeouts may play to his advantage.

Conversely, Colorado’s Kyle Freeland has struggled mightily this year, posting a 5.49 ERA and a 1-9 record through 16 starts. His xFIP of 4.04 indicates he might have been unlucky, but the Red Sox’s high-strikeout offense could exploit his weaknesses. Freeland’s projections suggest he will allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.4 hits, further compounding the Rockies’ challenges.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Freeland has gone to his non-fastballs 5.8% more often this year (61%) than he did last year (55.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Bats such as Mickey Moniak with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Hunter Goodman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Brayan Bello’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (94.6 mph) below where it was last season (95.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under Hits
  Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup today (.311 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .325 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.