Stream the Rockies vs Guardians Game Live – 7/30/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Cleveland Guardians

On July 30, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Colorado Rockies at Progressive Field for the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Guardians sitting at 53-54 and the Rockies languishing with a dismal 28-79 record. In their previous matchup, the Guardians pulled off a narrow victory, but both teams have shown inconsistency throughout the year.

Cleveland’s Kolby Allard is projected to take the mound, bringing a mixed bag of results to the game. Despite a solid ERA of 2.83, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his 4.97 xFIP indicates potential for regression. Allard’s low strikeout rate (13.1 K%) could work in his favor against the Rockies’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts. However, his propensity to allow hits and walks could be problematic against a team that, while struggling, still has some offensive talent.

On the other side, Kyle Freeland will start for Colorado. His 5.24 ERA reflects a tough season, but his 4.09 xFIP shows he may have been a victim of bad luck. Freeland’s ability to pitch deeper into games (projected 5.4 innings) could be an advantage, especially since the Rockies’ bullpen ranks 10th in MLB, offering a more reliable late-game option than the Guardians’ 14th-ranked bullpen.

Cleveland’s offense has struggled, ranking 28th in MLB, while Colorado sits at 26th. With the Guardians projected to score 4.60 runs and the Rockies at just 3.40, the Guardians are favored to win this matchup. As both teams seek to find some rhythm, this game may provide a crucial opportunity for Cleveland to solidify their standing in a disappointing season.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Kyle Freeland will tally an average of 16.4 outs in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Tyler Freeman is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Kolby Allard has been lucky this year, putting up a 2.83 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.43 — a 2.6 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Angel Martinez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the league: #30 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 71 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+10.57 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.60 Units / 26% ROI)