Athletics
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-185
On June 29, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Oakland Athletics at Yankee Stadium for the third game of their series. The Yankees, currently sitting at 47-35, are enjoying a solid season and boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their impressive power numbers, ranking 2nd in home runs. Conversely, the Athletics are struggling at 34-51, marking one of the worst records in the league.
In their last outing, the Yankees continued to show their offensive prowess, but the Athletics are coming off a rough stretch, which has hampered their chances all season. The Yankees are projected to start Marcus Stroman, who has had a rocky year with a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 11.57 after just three starts. However, his xFIP of 5.71 suggests he might be due for some positive regression. On the other side, Luis Severino will take the mound for the Athletics. While he has a better ERA of 4.83, his record is only 2-8, and he has struggled with consistency throughout the season.
The Yankees’ offense will be a significant challenge for Severino, especially considering that he’s a low-strikeout pitcher facing a high-strikeout lineup. The projections indicate that the Yankees could score around 5.71 runs, while the Athletics are expected to muster approximately 4.29 runs. With a current moneyline of -185, the Yankees are favored to win, reflecting their strong form and offensive capabilities.
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)Luis Severino is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Lawrence Butler has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Athletics hitters collectively rank near the bottom of the majors this year ( 7th-worst) when it comes to their 89-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Yankees Insights
- Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Marcus Stroman’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (45.8 compared to 38.3% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Typically, batters like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Luis Severino.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+18.42 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)Lawrence Butler has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 54% ROI)