Starting Lineup for Tigers vs Guardians – September 23, 2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on September 23, 2025, both teams are vying for a strong finish to the season. The Guardians currently sit at 84-72, while the Tigers hold a slight edge at 85-71. This matchup is crucial, as both teams are having above-average seasons, but the Guardians have struggled offensively, ranking 29th in MLB.

In their last outing, the Guardians showcased their pitching strength, but their offense continues to be a concern, especially against elite pitchers. Gavin Williams, projected to start for Cleveland, has been solid with an 11-5 record and a respectable 3.06 ERA. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests he may have been lucky this season, and he projects to struggle against a potent Tigers lineup. Williams is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, but his tendency to issue 2.0 walks per game could be problematic.

On the other side, Tarik Skubal takes the mound for Detroit, boasting an impressive 13-5 record and an outstanding 2.23 ERA. Skubal is currently ranked as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB, and his projections indicate he will likely allow just 1.7 earned runs over 5.8 innings. His ability to generate strikeouts—projected at 7.1 per game—will be crucial against a Guardians offense that struggles to make consistent contact.

The Tigers have the advantage in team rankings, coming in at 12th overall offensively, compared to the Guardians’ dismal 29th. Despite Cleveland’s home-field advantage, the Guardians are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +130, reflecting their low implied team total of 2.96 runs for this game. With such a stark contrast in pitching matchup and offensive capabilities, the Tigers look poised to capitalize on this opportunity.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Tarik Skubal’s 2351-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 125-rpm spike from last year’s 2226-rpm figure.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Detroit Tigers have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Gavin Williams has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 6.8 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Brayan Rocchio’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 87.6-mph now compared to just 84.5-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 6.7% Barrel% of the Cleveland Guardians grades them out as the #30 team in the game this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+135)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 68 games (+21.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 129 games (+15.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Parker Meadows has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)