Starting Lineup for Rays vs Athletics – August 20, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 20, 2024, they come off an impressive shutout victory over the Rays yesterday, winning 3-0. The Athletics, despite struggling this season with a 54-71 record, showed some resilience in that game, demonstrating that they are capable of pulling off surprising performances.

In this matchup, pitching will be pivotal. The Athletics are projected to start Joey Estes, who, despite being ranked 250th among MLB starters, has shown moments of adequacy with a 4.72 ERA. Estes tends to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. His high flyball percentage (48 FB%) could work in his favor against a Rays offense that has struggled to hit for power, ranking 26th in home runs this season with only 97 big flies.

On the other side, Shane Baz takes the mound for the Rays. While Baz has been less than stellar with a 4.21 ERA and a poor 0-2 win/loss record, his last outing was a solid 7-inning performance where he allowed just 3 earned runs. Even though the Rays rank 24th in overall offensive performance, they possess speed on the bases, ranking 4th in stolen bases, which could create scoring opportunities against the Athletics’ pitching.

Betting markets have set the game total at a modest 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest. Interestingly, projections suggest that the Athletics, despite their struggles and an implied team total of just 3.66 runs, might outperform expectations with an average projection of 4.10 runs in this matchup. With the Athletics’ bullpen ranking 7th in MLB, they could hold a late-game advantage if the score remains close. Overall, this game has all the makings of a tight battle as both teams look to build off their previous efforts.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Shane Baz has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 9.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Rob Brantly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Rob Brantly is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Oakland Athletics has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Joey Estes’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (54.7% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Lawrence Butler has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 25.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably higher than his 18.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+100)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 46 games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 66 of their last 108 games (+21.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+215/-290)
  Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)