Starting Lineup for Rangers vs Athletics – April 24, 2025

Texas Rangers

@

Athletics

As the Texas Rangers face off against the Oakland Athletics on April 24, 2025, they do so with quite a bit on the line. The Rangers, at 14-10, have impressed many with their strong start this season, while the Athletics sit at 11-13, struggling to find their footing. Recently, the Athletics received a boost as they celebrated a hard-fought victory over the Rangers just yesterday in a high-scoring contest.

Projected to start for the Athletics is J.T. Ginn, who has a solid ERA of 3.60 this year. While Ginn’s performance has been commendable, he has had a few unfortunate breaks, as indicated by his xFIP of 2.22, which suggests he may be performing better than his stats reflect. However, he is also projected to allow an average of 4.8 hits and 1.7 walks today, which could spell trouble against a powerful lineup.

On the other side, the Rangers will send out Jacob deGrom, a former ace who holds a respectable 3.32 ERA in 2025. Although deGrom is still searching for his first win this season, he has a high strikeout projection of 6.4, making him a difficult matchup for any lineup. That said, the projections indicate he might experience some regression, given his elevated xFIP of 4.37.

From an offensive perspective, the Athletics rank 6th in MLB in overall talent, showcasing their potential with a strong home run ranking of 4th. This high power output could be pivotal, especially since deGrom tends to allow fly balls, which may turn into home runs against a potent lineup. Meanwhile, the Rangers rank 25th offensively, suggesting that they may struggle to keep pace with the Athletics’ firepower.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs and Oakland entering as an underdog with a +125 moneyline, this matchup has the makings of a competitive evening at Sutter Health Park. With the Athletics projected to score around 3.90 runs, they seem primed to overachieve based on their talent level, especially if Ginn can outshine his statistics in his outing against deGrom.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Jacob deGrom has been lucky in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 2.78 figure is a fair amount lower than his 4.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Marcus Semien has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .207 rate is a good deal lower than his .291 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  In his last GS, J.T. Ginn was rolling and gave up 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  JJ Bleday has struggled with his Barrel%; his 8.3% rate last year has fallen off to 3.1% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Athletics have been the 7th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 38% ROI)