Starting Lineup for Orioles vs Marlins – July 24, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

@

Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles are set to face off in the second game of their series on July 24, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. Despite Miami’s struggles this season, holding a 36-65 record, they managed to pull off a 6-3 victory against Baltimore just yesterday. That was a significant win for the Marlins, considering the Orioles are enjoying a stellar season with a 60-40 record.

The pitching matchup will feature Edward Cabrera for the Marlins and Chayce McDermott for the Orioles. Cabrera, who has an ERA of 7.36 this year, has endured a rough season but boasts a much better xFIP of 3.85, suggesting he’s been quite unlucky. In his last outing, though, Cabrera allowed just 1 earned run despite giving up 5 hits and 5 walks, showing some resilience. He’ll need to navigate an Orioles lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in home runs and 3rd overall in offense.

McDermott, on the other hand, is projected to pitch 5.1 innings with an average projection for earned runs and strikeouts. However, his match against a struggling Marlins offense, which ranks 29th overall, could serve as a get-right opportunity. With Miami ranking 30th in home runs and 23rd in batting average, it will be interesting to see if McDermott can capitalize on the matchup.

Despite Baltimore’s loss yesterday, they remain slight favorites for this game, with a moneyline of -135 and an implied win probability of 55%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Marlins a bit more hope, projecting their win probability at 48% compared to the bookmakers’ 45%.

Jazz Chisholm remains Miami’s standout hitter this season with 13 home runs, while Gunnar Henderson has been leading Baltimore’s offensive charge with 28 home runs and a .287 batting average. Jake Burger and Ryan O’Hearn have also been hot recently, making significant contributions to their respective teams.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Chayce McDermott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Chayce McDermott in the 77th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  In the past 7 days, Gunnar Henderson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Baltimore’s 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+120)
  Among every team today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  In comparison to his 90.3-mph average last year, Jesus Sanchez’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.3 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 away games (+13.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 35 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)