Starting Lineup for Mets vs Cardinals – August 05, 2024

New York Mets

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the New York Mets on August 5, 2024, both teams are looking to bounce back from tight losses in their previous games. The Cardinals fell to the Chicago Cubs by a score of 6-2, while the Mets lost a nail-biter to the Los Angeles Angels, 3-2. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams are keen to gain momentum.

The Cardinals, sitting at 57-55, have had an average season thus far, while the Mets are slightly ahead at 58-53, indicating an above-average performance. Andre Pallante is projected to take the mound for St. Louis. Despite being ranked the 91st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Pallante’s ERA of 4.04 shows he can be hit. He’ll be facing Sean Manaea, who has had a strong season with a 3.50 ERA and a 7-4 record, but advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.30.

Offensively, the Cardinals have struggled, ranking 22nd in home runs and 20th in stolen bases, while their best hitter, Alec Burleson, has shown some consistency. In contrast, the Mets boast the 7th best offense in MLB, highlighted by Francisco Lindor’s impressive season.

Interestingly, projections favor the Cardinals, suggesting they have a better chance of winning than the betting markets indicate. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, it sets the stage for a potentially close contest. If Pallante can keep the powerful Mets offense in check, the Cardinals may just find a way to secure a much-needed victory.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea will “start” for New York Mets in today’s game but will fill the role of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Pete Alonso has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 99.8-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 70% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  In terms of his home runs, Alec Burleson has been very fortunate this year. His 27.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 70% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 46 games (+11.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.05 Units / 38% ROI)