Simulation and Insights for Rockies vs Brewers Match Preview – Friday June 27, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on June 27, 2025, there’s a palpable sense of anticipation surrounding the matchup. The Brewers, currently sporting a 45-36 record, are enjoying a solid season and coming off a victory against the Chicago Cubs, where they emerged with a 4-2 win on June 25. In stark contrast, the Rockies are struggling mightily with a dismal 18-63 record, having lost 3-1 to the Philadelphia Phillies in their last outing.

This game marks the first of the series, and the Brewers will be looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage at American Family Field. Milwaukee’s Jose Quintana is projected to take the mound, bringing a 5-2 record and a stellar 2.98 ERA this season. However, while Quintana’s ERA is impressive, his 4.83 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune this year. That being said, Quintana’s low strikeout rate (15.5 K%) could play to his advantage against a Rockies offense that leads the league in strikeouts.

On the other side, Kyle Freeland will start for Colorado, struggling with a 1-8 record and a 5.13 ERA. Freeland’s projections indicate he will pitch poorly today, averaging just 4.6 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed. The Rockies offense ranks 26th in MLB, making their path to scoring runs against a competent pitcher like Quintana even more challenging.

The Brewers are not only favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -200, but projections suggest they could score almost 5 runs, while the Rockies are expected to struggle to reach 3.57 runs. Given the current form of both teams, the Brewers appear poised to continue their winning ways in this pivotal matchup.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Brenton Doyle is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Tallying 93.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Jose Quintana checks in at the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Milwaukee Brewers hitters jointly grade out 30th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-195)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 away games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)