Simulation and Insights for Brewers vs Pirates Match Preview – Sunday May 25, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On May 25, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park in a National League Central matchup. The Pirates are struggling this season with a record of 19-34, while the Brewers sit at 25-28, both teams well below expectations. In their last encounter on May 24, the Pirates managed to squeak out a 2-1 victory, snapping a tough stretch and providing a glimmer of hope.

The pitching matchup features Bailey Falter for the Pirates, who has had an inconsistent season, boasting a 3-3 record and a solid 3.50 ERA. However, advanced stats rank him as the 202nd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he may have benefited from some good fortune. He projects to pitch about 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, which could pose a challenge against a Brewers lineup that, despite its own struggles, has some capable hitters.

Logan Henderson takes the mound for the Brewers, entering the game with a perfect 3-0 record and an impressive 1.69 ERA, ranking him 65th among MLB starters. He has shown solid potential, striking out 5.0 batters per game while limiting walks. However, his projections indicate he might struggle with hits allowed, averaging 4.5 per game.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 29th in MLB, showcasing a lack of power with only 36 home runs this season. In contrast, the Brewers, while also struggling offensively, have shown flashes of capability. The projections suggest the Pirates have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs, while the Brewers are projected to score 4.60 runs, making Milwaukee the favorites in this matchup. As both teams seek consistency, this game could hinge on the performance of their starting pitchers.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Logan Henderson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With 6 hitters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Logan Henderson ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme groundball batters like Christian Yelich are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Falter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bailey Falter’s 2081-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 3rd percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Oneil Cruz has made significant strides with his Barrel%, improving his 15.7% rate last year to 22.1% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Alexander Canario).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+11.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alexander Canario – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-235)
  Alexander Canario has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)