See the Weather Forecast for Cubs vs White Sox – Saturday, July 26th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are set to host the Chicago Cubs on July 26, 2025, in a matchup that highlights the stark contrast in their seasons. The White Sox, languishing with a record of 38-66, are struggling significantly, while the Cubs sit comfortably at 60-43, showcasing a strong postseason push. In their previous game, the Cubs managed a decisive win, which further emphasizes their dominance in this series.

Projected starters Aaron Civale for the White Sox and Cade Horton for the Cubs present an intriguing dynamic. Civale has not had the best year, with a 2-6 record and a 4.76 ERA, ranking him as the 207th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections indicate he may struggle today, averaging 3.1 earned runs over 5.1 innings. Added to this, Civale’s tendency to give up fly balls could be exploited by the Cubs’ powerful offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB with 153 home runs.

On the other hand, Cade Horton, with a 3-3 record and a 4.04 ERA, is also not having a standout season. However, he projects to allow only 2.4 earned runs and is pitching against a White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in offensive prowess. This stark disparity gives the Cubs a significant edge in the matchup.

While the White Sox’s offense has been largely ineffective, their top hitter has been performing well recently, boasting a .400 batting average. However, this may not be enough against a well-rounded Cubs team that ranks 4th in team batting average and has a powerful lineup.

With the game total set at 9.5 runs, the Cubs’ high implied team total of 5.46 runs suggests they are favored to continue their strong form against a struggling White Sox squad. Expect the Cubs to capitalize on their offensive strengths, making this matchup one to watch closely for bettors.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average pitcher, Cade Horton has been granted a below-average leash this year, tallying an -10.7 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Tucker has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph dropping to 82.8-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs bats collectively place 4th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Aaron Civale has utilized his four-seamer 5.7% more often this year (15.6%) than he did last season (9.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Miguel Vargas is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Mike Tauchman has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 85 games (+11.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 97 games (+7.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Carson Kelly has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 113% ROI)