Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
(-120/+100)+100
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves square off on July 25, 2024, at Citi Field in a highly anticipated National League East matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mets sporting a 53-48 record and the Braves slightly ahead at 54-46. As the division race heats up, this series opener carries significant weight for both teams vying for playoff contention.
The Mets come into this game riding high after a dominant 12-3 victory over the Yankees on July 24. Notably, they were big underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +150 but defied the odds with a commanding performance. In contrast, the Braves are licking their wounds following a 9-4 loss to the Reds, despite being heavy favorites at -165.
Pitching matchups are a focal point in this contest. The Mets will send Luis Severino, who boasts a 7-3 record and a solid 3.58 ERA, to the mound. However, his 4.40 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate this season and may be due for regression. Severino is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs and strike out 5.5 batters over an average of 5.7 innings. His recent form is commendable, with a stellar outing on July 20, where he pitched 6 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts.
The Braves counter with Chris Sale, an elite left-hander ranked as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Sale’s impressive 13-3 record and 2.70 ERA underline his dominance this season. Projections indicate he will allow 2.2 earned runs and strike out 7.6 batters over 5.8 innings, setting the stage for a pitching duel.
Offensively, the Mets hold a significant edge. They rank 7th in MLB in overall offense, 10th in batting average, and 4th in home runs. Francisco Lindor has been their catalyst, compiling 21 home runs and 20 stolen bases with an .817 OPS. Jeff McNeil has also been hot, posting a remarkable .400 batting average and 1.509 OPS over the last week.
The Braves, while average overall (14th in offense), possess power, ranking 10th in home runs. Marcell Ozuna has been their standout performer, belting 28 homers with a .306 batting average and .968 OPS.
Despite the Mets’ offensive prowess, the Braves’ elite bullpen (ranked 7th) gives them a slight edge, especially considering Luis Severino’s potential for regression. This game is projected to be a tight contest, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving the Braves a 51% win probability, slightly better than their implied probability of 51%. Expect a close and competitive game in this crucial division clash.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Travis d’Arnaud – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)Travis d’Arnaud is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the game this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
New York Mets Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-210/+160)Luis Severino has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)J.D. Martinez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 94.4-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Mets hitters collectively rank 4th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 9.6% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games (+13.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 97 games (+24.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)