See the Weather Forecast for Astros vs Yankees – Saturday, August 9th, 2025

Houston Astros

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium on August 9, 2025, in the second game of their series. This matchup holds particular significance as both teams are battling for positioning in a tightly contested American League. Currently, the Yankees are 61-55, having had an above-average season, while the Astros boast a record of 65-51, marking them as a solid contender this year.

In their last game, the Yankees showed resilience but ultimately fell short against the Astros, who continue to leverage their offensive prowess. The Yankees’ offense ranks 2nd in the league, showcasing an exceptional ability to hit home runs, but they may face challenges against the elite left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who has excelled this season with a record of 11-5 and an impressive ERA of 2.83.

Luis Gil will take the mound for New York, looking to improve upon his rocky start to the season. With a troubling 0-1 record and an ERA of 13.50 in just one appearance, Gil is projected to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. He is a low-strikeout pitcher facing an Astros offense that ranks as one of the least strikeout-prone in the league, which could play to Houston’s advantage. Conversely, Valdez is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs and is backed by an Astros offense that ranks 11th overall.

According to advanced metrics, the Yankees have one of the strongest bullpens, ranked 4th in MLB, which may help them close out games more effectively as the season progresses. With the betting markets favoring the Astros slightly, the Yankees will need to capitalize on their offensive strengths while navigating the challenges presented by Valdez. Expect a competitive game with a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, indicating that both offenses should have opportunities to shine.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jesus Sanchez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 96.2-mph average last year has fallen off to 93.5-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Houston Astros have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 14.8° mark is among the highest in the league this year (#8 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Luis Gil’s 96.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 97th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 115 games (+14.65 Units / 11% ROI)