See the Weather Forecast for Astros vs Yankees – Saturday, August 9th, 2025

Houston Astros

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees and Houston Astros gear up for their matchup on August 9, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from their recent performances. In their last encounter, the Astros edged out the Yankees with a 5-3 victory, further solidifying their strong season with a record of 65-51. Meanwhile, the Yankees, at 61-55, have had an above-average season but are currently battling to stay relevant in the playoff picture.

Luis Gil will take the mound for New York, coming off a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 3 innings. His ERA stands at a troubling 13.50 this season, making him one of the less favored pitchers in the league, ranking 131st out of approximately 350 starters. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he could see some improvement, but facing an elite offense like Houston’s, which ranks 10th overall, may pose a challenge.

On the other side, Framber Valdez, an elite left-hander with a 2.83 ERA, is set to start for the Astros. Valdez is enjoying a solid season with an 11-5 record and has been particularly effective, though he too faced difficulties in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 6 innings. The projections favor Valdez, who is expected to manage a solid outing against a Yankees offense that, while potent—ranking 3rd in runs and 1st in home runs—could struggle against his groundball tendencies.

With both teams aiming to solidify their standings, this matchup is crucial. The Yankees’ offense, led by their top hitter, boasts impressive numbers, while the Astros have shown resilience and strength in their lineup. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the anticipated competitiveness of this contest. Betting markets have both teams at -110, indicating a close contest ahead.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  With a 0.17 difference between Framber Valdez’s 9.26 K/9 and his 9.09 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and should negatively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Christian Walker has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 14.8° mark is among the highest in the league this year (#8 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Luis Gil’s 96.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 97th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 8th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 115 games (+14.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.95 Units / 73% ROI)