See the Updated Player Rankings for Pirates vs Cubs – June 14, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on June 14, 2025, the stakes are high for the Cubs, who are looking to bounce back after a tough 2-1 loss to the Pirates the previous day. With a record of 42-28, the Cubs are having a strong season, sitting comfortably in the National League Central. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling with a 29-42 record, making this matchup a classic case of a rising team against one that is floundering.

Matthew Boyd is set to take the mound for the Cubs, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.89 this season. Ranked as the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB, Boyd has shown he can deliver, although his peripherals suggest he may have been a bit lucky thus far. His last outing on June 9 was a struggle, but he managed to limit the damage to just one earned run despite allowing eight hits. The projections indicate that Boyd could pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing 1.8 earned runs while striking out about 6.3 batters—a solid performance.

On the other side, Michael Burrows will start for the Pirates, and the projections indicate he might only last around 4.5 innings, potentially allowing over two earned runs. With an ERA of 5.00 and a Power Rankings position that reflects below-average performance, the Pirates are at a disadvantage.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 4th in MLB, showcasing their scoring ability, while the Pirates sit near the bottom at 28th. With an implied team total of 4.23 runs for the Cubs compared to just 2.77 runs for the Pirates, it’s clear which team holds the edge. Expect the Cubs to leverage their offensive prowess and Boyd’s solid pitching to secure a victory in this key matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+195)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Oneil Cruz’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 97.3-mph now compared to just 95.3-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-240)
  Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-225)
  The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+13.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)