See the Updated Player Rankings for Braves vs Athletics – July 9, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Athletics

On July 9, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Atlanta Braves at Sutter Health Park for the second game of their interleague series. In their last matchup, the Athletics secured a decisive 10-1 victory, adding to what has been a challenging season for both teams. The Athletics sit at 38-55, while the Braves are slightly better at 39-51, both struggling to find consistency.

Mitch Spence is projected to take the mound for the Athletics, coming off a game on July 2 where he pitched 5 innings, allowing 4 earned runs with 5 strikeouts. His overall season ERA stands at 4.06, which is above average, but his expected ERA (xERA) of 5.01 suggests he may have been fortunate in some outings. The projections indicate Spence will average 5.0 innings today, allowing about 3.1 earned runs, and striking out approximately 3.8 batters.

On the other side, the Braves will start Bryce Elder. His last performance on July 3 was similarly underwhelming, as he also allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings pitched. With a troubling ERA of 5.92, Elder has been one of the weaker pitchers in MLB this season. However, the projections offer a glimmer of hope, suggesting he may perform better going forward.

The Athletics’ offense ranks 11th in MLB, with a strong showing in home runs, while the Braves’ lineup struggles at 21st in overall performance. Betting markets currently favor the Braves with a moneyline of -135, but with the Athletics’ implied team total of 4.95 runs, this matchup could be closer than expected. As both teams aim to turn their seasons around, this game offers an intriguing clash between struggling squads on July 9.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Elder is expected to ring up an average of 5 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme groundball bats like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitch Spence.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-135)
  The Atlanta Braves projected offense grades out as the 4th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Mitch Spence has gone to his secondary offerings 5.3% more often this year (89.1%) than he did last year (83.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Nicholas Kurtz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 87 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+14.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 59% ROI)