See the Updated Player Rankings for Braves vs Athletics – July 9, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Athletics

On July 9, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Atlanta Braves at Sutter Health Park for the second game of their interleague series. In yesterday’s matchup, the Athletics secured a resounding 10-1 victory over the Braves, adding to their season struggles. Both teams are floundering, with the Athletics holding a record of 38-55 and the Braves at 39-51.

Mitch Spence is projected to take the mound for Oakland, boasting a 4.06 ERA this season. However, his 5.01 xERA suggests he may not be as fortunate going forward, as he has been fortunate in some of his outings. Spence’s last start saw him pitch five innings, allowing four earned runs, with a mediocre performance overall. In contrast, Atlanta’s Bryce Elder, with a poor 5.92 ERA, is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite his struggles, Elder’s 4.00 xFIP indicates he could improve in future outings, though he also allowed four earned runs in his last start.

This matchup highlights two offenses that are underperforming this season, with Oakland ranked 21st and Atlanta ranked 21st overall in MLB. Despite their current struggles, the Athletics rank 11th in overall offense, suggesting that their lineup has the potential to generate runs. Bettors might find value in Oakland, as they currently have a moneyline set at -105, indicating a close contest. The projections suggest the Athletics could put up an impressive team total of 5.19 runs, catching the Braves slightly off-guard.

With both teams needing to turn the tide, this game could be pivotal for individual performances, especially for Spence and Elder, as they look to improve their seasons amid disappointing outcomes.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Considering that flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Bryce Elder (48.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Drake Baldwin is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Sacramento (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Mitch Spence has gone to his secondary offerings 5.3% more often this year (89.1%) than he did last year (83.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Tyler Soderstrom has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 87 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+14.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 59% ROI)