See the Starting Lineup for Royals vs Rays – April 29, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Tampa Bay Rays

On April 29, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Kansas City Royals at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the first game of their series. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Rays at 14-14 and the Royals at 14-15. However, the Rays have the advantage with a Power Ranking of 15th for their bullpen, compared to the Royals’ 23rd ranking, indicating a stronger overall team performance.

In their last game, the Rays managed to put together a solid offensive showing, but they still face challenges as they go up against a Royals squad that has struggled mightily this season. Kansas City ranks 30th in the league in offensive production, batting average, and home runs, showcasing their difficulties at the plate. This could play to the advantage of Rays’ pitcher Taj Bradley, who, despite a rough ERA of 5.08, ranks 69th among starters, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward.

Bradley projects to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, while also facing a Royals offense that has hit just 13 home runs all season—the fewest in MLB. Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for Kansas City. Although Lorenzen has posted a respectable ERA of 3.90, he ranks among the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics.

With Tampa Bay’s offense ranking 14th overall and 7th in batting average, they have the tools to exploit Lorenzen’s weaknesses. Betting odds favor the Rays at a -150 moneyline, implying a strong likelihood of victory in this matchup, which could be critical in maintaining momentum for the season.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to average, Michael Lorenzen has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.7 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Typically, bats like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Taj Bradley.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Taj Bradley has relied on his curveball 6.3% more often this season (15.3%) than he did last year (9%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Christopher Morel has big-time power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen doesn’t generate many whiffs (19th percentile K%) — great news for Morel.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Tampa Bay’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.35 Units / 53% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)