See the Starting Lineup for Phillies vs Dodgers – October 09, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Cristopher Sanchez was firing on all cylinders in his previous start and accumulated 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Max Kepler has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .301 figure is considerably lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Tyler Glasnow has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Will Smith is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 75 games at home (+10.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 55 away games (+18.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+175/-230)
  Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)