Seattle Mariners
Cincinnati Reds
(-120/+100)-110
On April 15, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Seattle Mariners at Great American Ball Park in an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams enter the game with identical records of 8-8, reflecting a rather average start to their seasons. The Reds, currently sitting near the bottom of the Power Rankings at 28th for their offense and 25th for their bullpen, have struggled offensively, particularly in batting average and overall run production. Meanwhile, the Mariners boast a more balanced offensive profile, ranking 6th in home runs, though they too are mired in a lackluster batting average, ranking 25th.
In a notable pitching duel, the Reds are projected to start Nick Lodolo, who comes off a strong showing with a 2-1 record and an impressive 0.96 ERA. However, his 4.23 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate and could face some regression. On the other hand, the Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, holding a solid 2.12 ERA and a better Power Ranking at 73rd among starting pitchers. Castillo has also started strong this season, showing fewer signs of regression compared to Lodolo.
The matchup presents an interesting dynamic: Lodolo’s low walk rate (1.4 BB%) faces a Mariners offense that has been patient at the plate, ranking 6th in walks. With the Reds’ lineup struggling to generate consistent offense, this game could hinge on whether Lodolo can maintain his control against a disciplined Seattle lineup.
The current game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive contest. The betting markets lean slightly toward the Mariners with a moneyline of -120 compared to the Reds’ +100. Given these factors, the Reds may find themselves undervalued, especially if Lodolo can continue his early-season success.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis F. Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has gone to his non-fastballs 9.2% less often this season (27.4%) than he did last year (36.6%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Dylan Moore has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The 9.1% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners grades them out as the #5 group of hitters in the game since the start of last season by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-110)Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jake Fraley is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.10 Units / 62% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 50% ROI)