See the Starting Lineup for Cubs vs Royals – July 28, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs are set to wrap up their series on July 28, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, enjoying an above-average season with a 57-48 record, will look to bounce back after a 9-4 loss to the Cubs on July 27. The Cubs, who have struggled this season with a 50-56 record, aim to secure another win and inch closer to .500.

The Royals will send Cole Ragans to the mound, who has been outstanding this season. Ragans ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him an elite option. He’s posted a solid 3.23 ERA over 21 starts, with a 7-6 record. His performance is projected to be strong today, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasting 5.5 innings, 2.5 earned runs, and 6.6 strikeouts.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Javier Assad. Despite his respectable 3.15 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he’s been fortunate this season. His 4.52 xFIP indicates potential regression. Assad’s projections are less favorable, pegging him for 5.1 innings, 3.1 earned runs, and just 3.4 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Royals hold the edge. They rank 12th in MLB, with a standout performance from Bobby Witt Jr., who boasts a .342 batting average and a .976 OPS. Witt Jr. has also been hot recently, hitting .500 with a 1.372 OPS over the last week. The Cubs’ offense, ranking 22nd, has struggled, though Seiya Suzuki has been a bright spot, hitting .348 with a 1.096 OPS over the last seven games.

The Royals’ bullpen, ranked 15th, is average, while the Cubs’ bullpen ranks 25th, indicating potential late-game struggles. With the Royals listed as -170 favorites, their implied win probability is 61%, slightly higher than the 60% projected by THE BAT X. This matchup favors Kansas City, especially with their superior pitching and more consistent offense.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Javier Assad’s 2042-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 9th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Over the past 14 days, Dansby Swanson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Compared to league average, Cole Ragans has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 7.3 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Kyle Isbel may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Kansas City’s 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in baseball: #5 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games at home (+12.29 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)