Athletics
Texas Rangers
(+100/-120)-110
As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on April 28, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League West matchup. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Rangers holding a record of 15-13, while the Athletics sit at 14-14. The Rangers are coming off a tough 3-2 loss to the Athletics just a day prior, which adds an intriguing layer to this series opener.
Texas is projected to start Patrick Corbin, who has a 2-0 record this season and a solid ERA of 3.77. However, advanced metrics suggest that Corbin has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his higher 4.91 xERA. Corbin’s low strikeout rate (15.9 K%) could pose challenges against an Athletics lineup that ranks as the 9th best in MLB offensively. With the Athletics’ best hitter recently displaying power, hitting 3 home runs in the last week, they could capitalize on Corbin’s vulnerabilities.
On the other side, Oakland will send out JP Sears, who has a respectable 3.21 ERA this season. Although Sears is classified as a below-average pitcher, he has shown promise with a low walk rate, which could benefit him against a Rangers offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for fewest walks drawn. Sears’s ability to limit free passes may allow him to navigate through the Rangers’ lineup effectively.
Despite the Rangers’ 24th ranking in overall offensive performance, the projections suggest they have a favorable implied team total of 4.75 runs for this game. With both teams looking to gain momentum, this matchup is set to be a closely contested battle, making it an enticing option for bettors.
Athletics Insights
- JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)JP Sears has utilized his slider 9% more often this year (42.8%) than he did last year (33.8%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)This season, Miguel Andujar has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 86.5 mph compared to last year’s 84.1 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Texas Rangers Insights
- Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Out of all starting pitchers, Patrick Corbin’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 11th percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Higashioka usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like JP Sears.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Texas Rangers bats as a unit place 2nd- in the league for power this year when using their 11.6% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Jacob Wilson has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.20 Units / 42% ROI)