See the Score for Yankees vs Nationals Game – August 27th, 2024

New York Yankees

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals host the New York Yankees on August 27, 2024, the stakes remain high in this interleague matchup, especially after the Yankees bested the Nationals 5-2 in their previous encounter just a day prior. With the Nationals struggling this season at 59-73, they find themselves at the bottom of the standings, while the Yankees boast a strong 78-54 record, solidly in playoff contention.

The Nationals are projected to start Patrick Corbin, whose unfortunate 3-12 record and 5.73 ERA illustrate his struggles this year. Despite a decent outing in his last start—6 innings, 1 earned run, and 8 strikeouts—he remains the 312th ranked pitcher in MLB, signaling serious concerns against the Yankees’ powerful lineup. Corbin’s low groundball rate could be problematic against a Yankees team that has launched 149 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league.

On the other hand, Gerrit Cole takes the mound for New York, sporting an impressive 5-2 record and a solid 3.72 ERA. While his recent performance was stellar—6 innings with no earned runs—he has been somewhat fortunate this season, and his high flyball rate could open the door for a Nationals offense that, despite being underwhelming overall, ranks 29th in home runs.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, forecasts the Nationals to score just 3.84 runs, while the Yankees are projected for a robust 6.17 runs. With the Yankees’ lineup firing on all cylinders, they enter this game as significant favorites, and given the current odds, it’s clear they are expected to continue their winning ways against a struggling Nationals squad.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+145)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Gerrit Cole has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 3.6 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge’s true offensive ability to be a .431, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .055 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .486 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Projected catcher Jose Trevino projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Patrick Corbin’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (56.6% vs. 41.5% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (+140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 122 games (+9.40 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 106 games (+18.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 31 games (+17.00 Units / 55% ROI)