Minnesota Twins
Chicago Cubs
(-110/-110)+100
As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on August 5, 2024, the matchup is crucial for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Cubs, with a record of 55-59, find themselves in a below-average season, while the Twins are contending for the postseason at 62-48, showcasing a solid performance thus far.
In their last game, the Cubs emerged victorious against the St. Louis Cardinals, winning 6-2. They are looking to build on that momentum, especially since this game marks the beginning of an interleague series against the Twins. The Cubs are projected to start Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled this season with a 3-9 record and an ERA of 6.86. However, his advanced stats indicate he might be due for a turnaround, as his 4.44 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky.
On the other side, the Twins will send David Festa to the mound. His numbers tell a different story; he has a 1-2 record with a 6.98 ERA, but like Hendricks, his 3.87 xFIP hints at potential improvement. Festa’s low walk rate could mean he poses an advantage against the Cubs’ high-walk offense.
Offensively, the Cubs rank 21st in the league, while the Twins are 5th, highlighting a significant disparity. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, suggests the Cubs will score an average of 4.36 runs, which could be just enough if their pitching holds up, especially given the Cubs’ current moneyline of +100, which reflects a close contest.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- David Festa – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts David Festa in the 82nd percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Minnesota Twins today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .327 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Among all starting pitchers, Kyle Hendricks’s fastball velocity of 87.2 mph grades out in the 0th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Cody Bellinger is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#1-worst on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineThe Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+9.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 51% ROI)