Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
(+100/-120)-140
As the Kansas City Royals visit Yankee Stadium on September 10, 2024, they find themselves in a challenging matchup against the New York Yankees, who currently sit 2.5 games behind the division leaders. Each game is crucial as both teams try to cement their positions, though the Yankees are enjoying a robust season with an 83-61 record, while the Royals, at 79-66, are having a solid campaign as well.
In their last meeting on September 9, the Yankees dominated, winning 10-4, and they will look to continue their momentum in this second game of the series. The Yankees’ potent offense ranks as the 2nd best in MLB, bolstered by Aaron Judge, who has been a standout throughout the season with 51 home runs and a 0.322 batting average. Recent performances have seen Juan Soto heating up, making him a crucial asset with a 1.000 OPS over the last week.
On the mound, Marcus Stroman is projected to start for the Yankees. Despite ranking 140th among MLB starters, he has a respectable but suggestive ERA of 4.03. His last outing did not go well, as he was hit hard, allowing 5 earned runs in just 4 innings. Seth Lugo, meanwhile, is set to take the mound for the Royals. Lugo, who has been the 82nd ranked starter, has a stellar ERA of 3.05 and was effective in his last game, allowing only 1 earned run over 7 innings.
The projections suggest the Yankees are favorably positioned to score around 5.39 runs, while the Royals are expected to notch around 4.44 runs. As betting odds reflect, the Yankees are currently a -140 favorite, indicating confidence in their ability to secure another victory. With both teams bringing solid trends into this matchup, it promises to be an engaging contest that could further impact the playoff landscape.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Seth Lugo’s 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph decrease from last year’s 92.8-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Extreme flyball bats like Tommy Pham tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Marcus Stroman.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Kansas City’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #4 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)Marcus Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #4 HR venue in the majors — in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Jazz Chisholm Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 99 games (+20.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 45 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+23.70 Units / 38% ROI)